Stagflation-lite

Stagflation-lite

  Well, it didn’t come as a surprise, but the Fed went ahead and cut rates this week—their first move since last December. What was more interesting, though, were the new economic projections. This week’s chart shows the Fed’s outlook for 2025. The bars track...
The Big Bond Bounce

The Big Bond Bounce

  Are bonds back? They’re certainly looking feisty again. As this week’s chart above shows, the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index, which tracks returns on sovereign and corporate debt across developed and emerging markets, has surged more than 20% from its 2022 low—and...
The Long and the Short of It

The Long and the Short of It

  There’s been a bit of chatter lately about 30-year Treasury yields and the fact that they have been inching up towards 5%. As a reminder, the 30-year Treasury yield is the interest the U.S. government promises to pay you each year if you let them borrow your...
Come Together

Come Together

  Something a bit unusual is happening in financial markets right now. The income, or “yield,” you can earn from stocks, bonds, and even real estate (REITs) has all started to look the same. That doesn’t happen very often. This week’s chart shows what I mean....
Coins in the Couch Cushion

Coins in the Couch Cushion

  There’s an interesting development happening in financial markets right now. Sure, it’s a little boring and technical, but it centers on something called the Reverse Repo Facility. I like to think of it as financial markets’ version of coins in the couch...
Setting Expectations

Setting Expectations

  Despite all the headlines and big-picture drama this year, the stock market has been quietly following the historical, seasonal playbook pretty closely. As this week’s chart shows, the S&P 500’s path in 2025 has lined up closely with what typically happens...