Pressure Cooker

Pressure Cooker

    The bond market is sending a clear message: it’s time for the Fed to start thinking about rate cuts. The chart above compares the 2-Year Treasury yield with the Federal Funds Rate, and right now, the 2-Year is trading well below the Fed’s upper...
I Dissent!

I Dissent!

Cracks are starting to show inside the Federal Reserve, with multiple members breaking from the pack for the first time in over 30 years. Check out this week’s chart for a peek at the shift starting to form inside the Fed.

Tracking the Cycle

Tracking the Cycle

Can seasonality tell us anything useful about the future course of the stock market? Check out this week’s chart, where we breakdown the Cycle Composite for 2025.

Mixed Messages

Mixed Messages

This week’s chart shows a widening split between bonds and stocks. One is bracing for cuts, the other is betting on strength—both can’t be right.

No More Cutting

No More Cutting

  We’ve gotten some encouraging news on the earnings front lately. As this week’s chart shows, after months of steady cuts, analysts have finally stopped lowering their S&P 500 earnings estimates. Each line in the chart tracks the year-over-year growth...