by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 25, 2024 | Indicator Insights
The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a neat little metric produced by the Office of Financial Research that measures the amount of stress in global financial markets. It combines roughly 33 market variables—from yield spreads to valuation measures—into...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 18, 2024 | Indicator Insights
Is a recession coming? While a definitive yes-or-no answer to a question like that is virtually impossible, we can get somewhat close by using a model that assigns a probability to the outcome—called a Recession Probability Model. The main ingredients for the...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 11, 2024 | Indicator Insights
The FIBER U.S. Weekly Leading Index is a tool economists and investors use to measure economic growth. It’s called a “leading index” because it tends to lead the economic cycle by several months. Since it reveals the direction in which the economy is likely...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 4, 2024 | Indicator Insights
The stock market tends to go up over time. But there are times when it goes up too high, too fast. When this happens, a correction tends to occur, meaning stocks drop at least 10% from a recent high. We don’t always know when a correction is about to occur. But...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Dec 28, 2023 | Indicator Insights
Investors often assess a company’s earnings in two ways: by looking at its trailing earnings (the past) and its future earnings (expected). This week’s indicator looks at a combination of both to understand how they influence stock returns. At the...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Dec 21, 2023 | Indicator Insights
Our nickname for this week’s indicator is the “inflation leader.” Why? Because it tends to lead the broader measures of inflation—like the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and can therefore warn us when inflationary pressures are building. The...
