One and Done?
I’ve got a couple of charts this week showing just how quickly expectations can change in financial markets. The first chart, shown above, compares the market’s expectations for the terminal level of the federal funds rate (green line) vs. the current target...
Whichever Way the Funds Flows
For this week’s indicator, we’re going to look at fund flows and how they affect stock market returns. What is a fund flow? It’s simply the amount of cash flowing into or out of a financial asset. It doesn’t measure the performance of the asset but rather the...
Broken Banks, but Bye-Bye Bear?
OVERVIEW U.S. stocks tumbled last week as bank troubles and a hawkish Fed threw cold water on risk assets. The S&P 500 dropped 4.55%, the Dow lost 4.44%, and the Nasdaq declined 4.71%. Foreign stocks held up better, with developed country stocks decreasing...
This week’s featured chart shows the year-over-year change in the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (excluding food and energy). This is a popular measure of core inflation in the economy that the Federal Reserve follows closely. The problem,...
The Highs and the Lows
This week’s featured indicator focuses on breadth, or participation, in global financial markets. On the top half of the graph, we have the MSCI All-Country World Index, a benchmark index for the global stock market performance. On the bottom half of the graph,...
It’s time for 4 Your Money! John Nelson joins Local 4 News to talk about how increased interest rates will affect the economy.
Catching a Bid
OVERVIEW U.S. stocks broke a three-week losing streak last week as volatility—as measured by the VIX Index—fell nearly 15%. The S&P 500 climbed 1.75%, the Dow gained 1.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.58%. Foreign markets delivered solid performances as well....
‘Tis the Season
This week’s featured chart shows that the S&P 500 stock market index is about to enter a seasonally strong period for the year. How so? For any given year in the stock market, the period from March to July tends to be strong. But if we take this concept one...
This week’s featured indicator is based on the concept that reversals in bond yields (interest rates) often call the tune of the stock market. Why? Because bond yields compete with stock dividends for investors’ money. Additionally, interest rates affect the...
Financial Focus – March 1st, 2023
Listen to this week’s Financial Focus as David Nelson discusses the state of the U.S. consumer, the Fed, and how to think about stock market volatility.
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