Blog

Call It a Bull

Call It a Bull

  The stock market is acting like it’s in the early stages of a bull market. That’s the message from the Early Cycle Composite, shown on the chart above. This chart looks at the stocks and sectors that tend to lead in the early stages of a bull market—call these...

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McClellan Summation Index

McClellan Summation Index

  Sometimes the stock market is quiet, and there isn’t a whole lot of price movement in either direction. But other times, the market gets excited and surges powerfully in a particular direction. We call this sharp shift in sentiment a “thrust.” One of our...

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Gathering Steam

Gathering Steam

OVERVIEW   U.S. stocks rallied last week, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 4.32%. Growth stocks were out in front of the rally, swelling 3.34% for the week, whereas value stocks rose...

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Leading the Way

Leading the Way

  This week, I want to spotlight a research tool that does a great job of telling us where the stock market is likely headed next. It’s called the Leading Indicator Model. As the name implies, the model consists of 10 indicators with a history of leading the...

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Big Mo

Big Mo

  Big Mo, or “Big Momentum,” is an indicator we use to measure the trend and momentum of the stock market. It’s one of the best tools around for measuring the technical health of the broader equity market. It does this by combining over 100 component indicators...

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More Testing Needed

More Testing Needed

OVERVIEW   U.S. stocks were mixed last week. While the S&P 500 Index retreated 0.66% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 2.7%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.55%. Growth stocks led the way, gaining about 0.3%, whereas value-oriented stocks fell around...

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Bond Bargain

Bond Bargain

  Bond yields are finally looking more appealing. Our featured chart above shows that the yield on the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index—widely considered one of the best total bond market indices—has climbed to roughly 4.2%, its highest level in over a decade....

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Trendsetter

Trendsetter

  For this week’s featured indicator, I’d like to revisit a tool we use to measure the long-term “trend” or direction of the stock market. It’s called a deviation-from-trend indicator. It gets this name because it looks at how the stock market is trending over...

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Test Time

Test Time

OVERVIEW   U.S. stocks rose for a second straight week last week. The S&P 500 Index gained 2.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2%, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite surged 4.82%. Foreign stocks had a strong week as well. The MSCI EAFE Index of...

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Wilting Wages

Wilting Wages

  We’ve gotten some good news on the inflation front lately. The latest consumer price index release confirmed that inflation cooled for a sixth straight month. Additionally, last Friday’s employment report revealed a surprising decline in the year-over-year...

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