Running on Empty
The clock is ticking for the U.S. government’s finances. As our featured chart above shows, Uncle Sam’s checking account—something known as the Treasury General Account—is quickly shrinking. This week’s latest update showed the balance dropping to less than $50...
Great Expectations
For this week’s indicator, we’re going to take a look at stock market earnings and how they can be used to forecast stock market returns. In the top part of the chart above, we have plotted the S&P 500 Index’s monthly close (green line), which we’ll be...
Yearly Momentum
OVERVIEW The three major U.S. stock indices ended the week on a positive note, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 achieving their highest weekly close since August 2022. The Dow experienced a modest increase of 0.38%, while the S&P 500 saw a rise of 1.65%...
Sluggish
Sluggish growth continues to plague the U.S. economy. Retail sales and industrial production, both of which are strongly correlated with economic growth, came in unusually weak last month. The year-over-year change in retail sales, shown below, rose just 0.5% in...
Getting Liquid
There's this amusing scene in the 2000 movie Boiler Room where Ben Affleck's character boasts about his wealth to a room full of interns. He proudly mentions his luxurious car, beautiful house, and most importantly, he says, “I am liquid.” By "liquid," he means...
Financial Focus – May 17th, 2023
Don’t miss out on this week’s Financial Focus, as Nate Kreinbrink teams up with Andy Fergurson to delve into the realm of taxes. Join them as they explore topics such as checking refunds, the impact of tax law changes on withholdings, and valuable insights to navigate the ever-changing tax landscape.
Debt Ceiling Dislocations
There is a growing chorus of concern regarding the debt ceiling in the US. David Nelson is here to tell us if it is causing problems in financial markets.
Stumbling Block
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market had another mixed week. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.29% and the Dow fell 1.11%. Among different stock categories, small-cap stocks had the poorest performance, dropping approximately 1.7% for...
Sell in May and Walk Away
There’s an adage on Wall Street that goes something like, “Sell in May and walk away.” It refers to the stock market’s tendency to underperform for the six calendar months of May through October and outperform from November through April. Just how big is the...
Your Friend the Trend
A lot of investing success comes from being able to stay on the right side of a trending market. This principle is encapsulated by the industry phrase "Keep the trend your friend." In other words, it’s not a good idea to fight your friend, and it’s not a good...
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