Speed Kills
For this week’s featured chart, we want to highlight a theme that’s dominated the stock market this year. It has to do with the Fed, its rate-hiking cycle, and how that affects stock market returns. The chart shows that, historically, the speed at which the Fed...
Better Bargain
This week’s featured indicator looks at the stock market's median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to measure valuation. For those unfamiliar, the P/E ratio is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. The higher the ratio, the more investors are...
Extreme Sentiment
OVERVIEW Last week, U.S. stocks tumbled to their lowest level since November 2020. The S&P 500 fell 2.9% to close the week and is now down 25.2% from its January 3rd closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped 2.9% for the week, and the...
Shedding a Few Pounds
The British pound—the currency of the United Kingdom—was the star of the show of the financial world this week. It made the news because the leaders of the U.K.’s new government laid out a plan to cut taxes and pay for it by borrowing roughly £45 billion over...
More Puts Than Calls
Let’s say you’re an investor, and you want to place a bullish bet on the stock market. One way to do this would be to buy a call option. The value of a call option goes up when the price of a stock (or stock index) goes up—and it does so at a faster rate than...
Revisiting the Low
OVERVIEW The S&P 500 index reentered bear market territory last week with a 4.65% weekly decline. The Nasdaq Composite, down more than 30% this year, fell 5.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4%. Foreign stocks had a rough week as well....
Fun With the Fed
The Federal Reserve held its sixth FOMC meeting this week. One interesting thing to note from the meeting was that the Fed continued to raise its forecast for the fed funds terminal rate. Shown on the chart above, the terminal rate is the peak spot where the...
Recession Probability
This week’s indicator looks at the yield curve and how its shape can be used to anticipate when an economic recession is becoming more likely. The portion of the yield curve that it focuses on is the 10-year Treasury rate and the 3-month Treasury rate. The New...
Looking for a Volatility Spike
OVERVIEW It was another rough week for the U.S. stock market. All three benchmark stock indices posted losses. The S&P 500 declined 4.8%, its worst week since mid-June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 5.5%....
Entrenched Inflation
Inflation has been a thorn in the side of the stock market all year. This week, we found out that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—a commonly used measure of inflation—dropped to an 8.3% year-over-year rate in August versus the 8.52% rate in July and the 9.06%...
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