Credit Spreads Signal Calm

Credit Spreads Signal Calm

  After a sharp spike in early April, credit spreads are once again signaling smooth sailing in the bond market—and by extension, the stock market. The chart above shows U.S. high yield spreads tightening sharply—down 151 basis points since peaking at 4.61% on...
The Big Get Bigger

The Big Get Bigger

  This week’s chart shows that when it comes to profitability in the stock market, the big just keep on getting better. What do I mean? Well, this week’s chart shows the forward (expected) profit margins of the seven largest tech companies in the S&P 500...
The World Turns

The World Turns

  One of the more interesting developments this year is the strength in international stocks. For a long time, they’ve trailed the U.S., often by a wide margin. When it came to international diversification, many investors asked themselves: why bother? But...
The Junk Gets Junkier

The Junk Gets Junkier

  When markets get shaky, the weakest links usually show it first—and nowhere is that more obvious than in junk bonds. This week’s chart is a favorite of DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach. It compares the yields on CCC-rated bonds—the riskiest junk out there—with...
Stress Signals

Stress Signals

  After more than two years of calm, financial stress is creeping back into the market. The chart above shows the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (bottom panel) plotted against the S&P 500 (top panel). The index tracks 18 different weekly data...
Vigilantes

Vigilantes

  It was another rollercoaster week in the markets. Volatility was high, and stock prices swung wildly. But beyond the headline-grabbing moves in equities, there was a deeper, more telling story unfolding under the surface—one that many non-market watchers likely...