Reversing Course

Reversing Course

  July 28th, 2023. That was the day the S&P 500 index reached its highest level of the year (so far). Since then, the market has tumbled. As of this writing, the S&P 500 index is down roughly 7% from its summer high. After two months of a down market,...
Playing Chicken

Playing Chicken

OVERVIEW   U.S. stocks fell last week as volatility reemerged on Wall Street. The VIX Index—a measure of investors’ expectations for market volatility—rose 25% for the week. The result was pretty large losses for the major U.S. stock indices. The S&P 500 fell...
Scarce Credit

Scarce Credit

  Americans love to spend money. That’s what we do. Resilient American consumers have helped support an economy this year that many believed would slow dramatically. However, as our featured chart this week shows, an important source of consumer spending is now...
The Return of Rising Rates

The Return of Rising Rates

  Short-term rates are on fire. The 2-year Treasury rate—a rough proxy for where the market thinks the Fed is headed with interest rates—rose to its highest level in 17 years this week. This is significant because sharp increases in short-term interest rates have...